A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
